50% profit target hit at 23 DTE — both formal rules satisfied in one cycle. The methodology working clean. The premium per share was the strongest of the cycle so far.
Closed trades + the methodology behind each
Selected closed trades, curated for what the methodology demonstrates — not every trade I've made. Tickers named, sizes never. Returns are on committed capital; APR equivalents are extrapolated from one cycle, never a forecast.
Not investment advice. Read the methodology post before copying any of this.
At a glance
- Closed trades 14 across 5 methodologies
- Outcome 12 winners · 2 losers
- Best return +114% COIN · 3.2y
- Worst return -10.2% CRM · 1.4y
- Longest held 3.2y COIN · +114%
Re-entry discipline
Stock ran toward the $23 strike during the cycle. Closed near break-even — barely positive premium against the upside cap. The cycle that says: this strategy has an edge case where a fast rally on the underlying erases the trade-off.
Strikes moved to $23 as the stock continued drifting lower. Closed in 4 days when premium had decayed past the 50% target — Rule 1 firing in real time.
Second cycle at the $26 strike. Opened standalone; later paired with a $25-strike call (next row) as the stock drifted lower. Both closed the same day.
Stacked alongside the $26 call above as the stock drifted toward $25. A strike-spread experiment to diversify premium across two strikes for the same cycle. Both closed same day.
First covered call after assignment at the $26 strike. Premium decayed fast — closed in 2 days. The annualised number looks wild because the cycle was so short; the methodology says don't chase that yield by re-entering immediately.
Wheel entry
Classic wheel entry — sold the $26 put a notch below the share price, accepted assignment at expiry to acquire the initial position. The trade that started the wheel running.
Exit discipline
Bought spring 2024 on the thesis that Agentforce + AI-attach would lift subscription growth back to 15%+. The thesis broke quarter by quarter as growth decelerated below 10% and management's acquisition appetite returned. Exited September 2025 at -10% across three sells. The pre-trade prompt I run now would have caught the original thesis as too dependent on a single quarter's results.
Bought May 2024 on a post-earnings dip expecting mean reversion to the long-term compounder pattern. Position held flat for 9 months while the broader market ran. Sold all 5 lots in one day in February 2025 when it became clear the catalyst wasn't coming. Small realised loss; the real cost was 9 months of flat capital.
Bought 2021-22 at $278-299 (split-adjusted from $834-897 pre-August-2022 3-for-1), added January 2024 at $185-212 after a further drawdown. Held through as the company swung between EV demand wobbles and FSD timeline noise. Exited in 5 staged sells across November 2024 at $342-360 as the trade returned to thesis territory.
Thesis-anchored buy
Bought through late 2024 / early 2025 on the AI Overview market-share fear. Thesis: search query share wouldn't fall as fast as the bears claimed, Gemini integration would defend the moat, cloud growth was independently strong. 12-month hold across multiple buy windows, single big sell in September 2025.
Bought December 2023 after the password-sharing crackdown started showing up in subscriber numbers. Thesis: the ad-tier launch + content monetisation were durable, the streaming wars were settling. Held 13 months through the 2024 run. Exited at +108% when the original thesis fully played out.
A small-cap restaurant chain bought when the analyst consensus was sceptical of post-COVID restaurant demand. Thesis: regional value brands compound through inflation cycles. 13-month hold; exited September 2024 when the multiple caught up to the thesis.
Conviction through drawdown
Bought 2021-22 at $173-325 across staged entries. Watched it fall to a $32-50 trough by late 2022 — about 80% underwater at the worst. Held through, then added at $71-90 during the 2023 recovery as the bottom was confirmed. Exited across 11 staged sells through 2024 at $208-340. The 2023 recovery buys turned a difficult position into the best % return on the page.