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// Trades · updated 2026-05-23

Closed trades + the methodology behind each

Selected closed trades, curated for what the methodology demonstrates — not every trade I've made. Tickers named, sizes never. Returns are on committed capital; APR equivalents are extrapolated from one cycle, never a forecast.

Not investment advice. Read the methodology post before copying any of this.

At a glance

  • Closed trades 14 across 5 methodologies
  • Outcome 12 winners · 2 losers
  • Best return +114% COIN · 3.2y
  • Worst return -10.2% CRM · 1.4y
  • Longest held 3.2y COIN · +114%

Re-entry discipline

6 cycles · 2026-02-25 → 2026-05-13 · read the methodology →
all 6 positive · best +5.65% · worst +0.27%
BMNR · CC · 2026-05-04 → 13 (9d)
Textbook
+5.65% in 9d · ~229% APR equiv

50% profit target hit at 23 DTE — both formal rules satisfied in one cycle. The methodology working clean. The premium per share was the strongest of the cycle so far.

BMNR · CC · 2026-04-09 → 23 (14d)
Near miss
+0.27% in 14d · ~7% APR equiv

Stock ran toward the $23 strike during the cycle. Closed near break-even — barely positive premium against the upside cap. The cycle that says: this strategy has an edge case where a fast rally on the underlying erases the trade-off.

BMNR · CC · 2026-03-23 → 27 (4d)
50% rule fired
+4.48% in 4d · ~409% APR equiv

Strikes moved to $23 as the stock continued drifting lower. Closed in 4 days when premium had decayed past the 50% target — Rule 1 firing in real time.

BMNR · CC · 2026-03-04 → 20 (16d)
Strike spread
+2.85% in 16d · ~65% APR equiv

Second cycle at the $26 strike. Opened standalone; later paired with a $25-strike call (next row) as the stock drifted lower. Both closed the same day.

BMNR · CC · 2026-03-10 → 20 (10d)
Strike spread
+2.08% in 10d · ~76% APR equiv

Stacked alongside the $26 call above as the stock drifted toward $25. A strike-spread experiment to diversify premium across two strikes for the same cycle. Both closed same day.

BMNR · CC · 2026-02-25 → 27 (2d)
Fast close
+2.40% in 2d · ~438% APR equiv

First covered call after assignment at the $26 strike. Premium decayed fast — closed in 2 days. The annualised number looks wild because the cycle was so short; the methodology says don't chase that yield by re-entering immediately.

Wheel entry

1 cycle · 2026-01-20 → 2026-02-19 · read the methodology →
BMNR · CSP · 2026-01-20 → 2026-02-19 (30d)
CSP
+7.04% in 30d · ~86% APR equiv

Classic wheel entry — sold the $26 put a notch below the share price, accepted assignment at expiry to acquire the initial position. The trade that started the wheel running.

Exit discipline

3 cycles · 2021-12-21 → 2025-09-09 · read the methodology →
1 positive · 2 negative · best +54.46% · worst -10.20%
CRM · Outright · 2024-04-01 → 2025-09-09 (526d)
Cut the loss
-10.20% in 526d · ~-7% annualised

Bought spring 2024 on the thesis that Agentforce + AI-attach would lift subscription growth back to 15%+. The thesis broke quarter by quarter as growth decelerated below 10% and management's acquisition appetite returned. Exited September 2025 at -10% across three sells. The pre-trade prompt I run now would have caught the original thesis as too dependent on a single quarter's results.

INTU · Outright · 2024-05-29 → 2025-02-04 (251d)
Opportunity cost
-3.87% in 251d · ~-6% APR equiv

Bought May 2024 on a post-earnings dip expecting mean reversion to the long-term compounder pattern. Position held flat for 9 months while the broader market ran. Sold all 5 lots in one day in February 2025 when it became clear the catalyst wasn't coming. Small realised loss; the real cost was 9 months of flat capital.

TSLA · Outright · 2021-12-21 → 2024-11-25 (1070d)
Trim into strength
+54.46% in 1070d · ~19% annualised

Bought 2021-22 at $278-299 (split-adjusted from $834-897 pre-August-2022 3-for-1), added January 2024 at $185-212 after a further drawdown. Held through as the company swung between EV demand wobbles and FSD timeline noise. Exited in 5 staged sells across November 2024 at $342-360 as the trade returned to thesis territory.

Thesis-anchored buy

3 cycles · 2023-08-02 → 2025-09-02 · read the methodology →
all 3 positive · best +108.09% · worst +26.83%
GOOGL · Outright · 2024-09-11 → 2025-09-02 (356d)
AI/cloud durability
+26.83% in 356d · ~28% APR equiv

Bought through late 2024 / early 2025 on the AI Overview market-share fear. Thesis: search query share wouldn't fall as fast as the bears claimed, Gemini integration would defend the moat, cloud growth was independently strong. 12-month hold across multiple buy windows, single big sell in September 2025.

NFLX · Outright · 2023-12-11 → 2025-01-27 (413d)
Quality compounder
+108.09% in 413d · ~96% annualised

Bought December 2023 after the password-sharing crackdown started showing up in subscriber numbers. Thesis: the ad-tier launch + content monetisation were durable, the streaming wars were settling. Held 13 months through the 2024 run. Exited at +108% when the original thesis fully played out.

TXRH · Outright · 2023-08-02 → 2024-09-13 (408d)
Small-cap conviction
+44.70% in 408d · ~40% annualised

A small-cap restaurant chain bought when the analyst consensus was sceptical of post-COVID restaurant demand. Thesis: regional value brands compound through inflation cycles. 13-month hold; exited September 2024 when the multiple caught up to the thesis.

Conviction through drawdown

1 cycle · 2021-09-14 → 2024-12-05
COIN · Outright · 2021-09-14 → 2024-12-05 (1178d)
75% underwater held
+113.97% in 1178d · ~35% annualised

Bought 2021-22 at $173-325 across staged entries. Watched it fall to a $32-50 trough by late 2022 — about 80% underwater at the worst. Held through, then added at $71-90 during the 2023 recovery as the bottom was confirmed. Exited across 11 staged sells through 2024 at $208-340. The 2023 recovery buys turned a difficult position into the best % return on the page.