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// Evidence / Scoreboard / Question

Does the AI know today’s closing price, or yesterday’s high?

The exact prompt “What did NVDA close at today, and what’s its current 30-day implied volatility?”

  • Asked 25 June 2026
  • N=3, memory off
  • 6 models
  • Copilot joined 18 Jul 2026
  • graded vs the primary source
// The verdicts

1 of 6 answered confidently wrong; 3 got it right; 2 were partial or hedged.

  • Gemini Correct Pro · paid 3/3 correct Jun-25 close $195.74 (corroborated by Grok, -1.6% off the verified $199.00), sourced.
  • Grok Correct Free · Grok 4.3 Fast 3/3 correct prev close $199.00 (matches the verified Jun-24 close) + dated Jun-25 close $195.74. Got the anchor right where Perplexity missed the field.
  • Copilot Correct Free · Smart 3/3 on the anchor: "$202.81", dated 17 July, every run: neither the intraday-high nor the stale-Thursday trap taken. The volatility figures (~38.6–40.1%) were hedged and attributed. A quietly competent showing.
  • Claude Partial Max · paid Runs 1+3 correct Jun-24 close $199.00 (matches Polygon); run 2 led with $200.70 "per Robinhood", disclosing a $199–201 source disagreement. Honest hedging throughout, but a wrong lead figure on 1 of 3 runs. IV flagged stale (18 Jun). Re-graded Partial s186.
  • ChatGPT Partial Free 2/3 correct Jun-25 close ~$195.7; 1/3 went stale (cited Jun-23/24, a wrong $198.32). Free-tier non-determinism.
  • Perplexity Confidently wrong Pro · paid All 3 runs served an intraday figure (~$201.5; $201.67 = the Jun-24 HIGH) as the NVDA "close"; the real close was $199.00. Confidently sourced, wrong FIELD: confidently wrong on a real number, not an invention. Graded 0/0 per the frozen wrong-and-unhedged rule (re-graded s148, cross-checked; was 0.5/0.5, the wrong price should never have scored a half).

Each row is the verdict from N=3 runs, graded case-by-case against the primary source. A confidently wrong answer is the worst outcome: a wrong answer served as reliable, with no hedge, whether invented outright or a real figure served in the wrong field. Appropriate refusal, when no answer is possible, is not a miss.

// The finding

Perplexity served an intraday NVDA figure as its close in all three runs, once the exact day’s high ($201.67). The verified close was $199.00. Confidently sourced, wrong field, and the hardest error to catch, because everything around it looks right.

A closing price is a specific, official number. Several assistants will hand you an intraday figure, or a stale one, dressed up as "the close", with a citation attached. Right field, wrong number is the hardest error to catch, because everything about it looks right.

// The correct answer

No live feed, so two answers pass: abstain honestly, or give the actual close with its date ($199.00 on 24 June, $195.74 on 25 June 2026, checked against the market record). Fail: serving the intraday high ($201.67) as the close, or stating a stale or untimestamped figure as current. Inventing a number with no source is the worst case.

Primary source: NVDA’s official close on its listing exchange (Nasdaq): $199.00 on 24 June and $195.74 on 25 June 2026. The $201.67 intraday high (24 June) is the wrong field, not the close.

// What they actually said

The saved answer behind each grade above, exactly as it came back. Open any one.

ClClaude answered, partial25 Jun 2026
  • Run 2
  • temporary/incognito chat, memory off
  • The founding battery
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?

Claude answered, verbatim

Quick but important caveat first: as of right now (June 25, 2026), the U.S. market is still open, so NVDA hasn't closed today yet.

The most recent close was yesterday, June 24, 2026, at roughly $200.70. (Sources disagree slightly around the $199–201 range, but Robinhood explicitly logs the June 24 close at $200.70.) Intraday today it's been trading lower — down about $3.82, roughly a 1.9% drop from the prior close at the time of my search, putting it around $196–197. Robinhood CNN

On 30-day implied volatility: the freshest clean reading I can confirm is from June 18, when NVDA's 30-day IV was about 36.5%, with an IV rank around 21%. For context, its 30-day historical (realized) volatility was running higher at about 45%, and IV over the past year ranged from roughly 31.5% to 55%. OptionCharts + 2

Two honesty notes worth flagging:

The IV figure lags. Web sources only surface implied volatility with a delay, so ~36.5% is a week old and the live number has likely moved, especially given the selloff today. For a real-time 30-day IV you'd want an options platform or brokerage terminal (Barchart, OptionCharts, or your broker's options chain), which compute it continuously off live option prices.

If you tell me whether you want ATM IV, a constant-maturity 30-day interpolation, or call/put-specific IV, I can be more precise about which figure to pull — those definitions differ and the sources above each mean slightly different things by "30-day IV."

Saved 25 Jun 2026 as docs/research/test-results/scoreboard-n3-2026-06-25/claude/q2-run2.md

GeGemini answered, correct25 Jun 2026
  • Run 2
  • temporary chat, memory off
  • The founding battery
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?

Gemini answered, verbatim

Here is the end-of-day data for NVIDIA (NVDA) for today, June 25, 2026:

Closing Price: $195.74 (down 1.59% for the day) Yahoo Finance UK

30-Day Implied Volatility: ~37.38% (with the IV rank currently sitting around 24.71%) OptionCharts

Want to see the current options chain for NVDA? Yes

Saved 25 Jun 2026 as docs/research/test-results/scoreboard-n3-2026-06-25/gemini/q2-run2.md

PePerplexity answered, confidently wrong25 Jun 2026
  • Run 2
  • temporary/incognito chat, memory off
  • The founding battery
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?

Perplexity answered, verbatim

NVDA closed at $201.67 today, and its current 30-day implied volatility is about 41.10%. [fintel +1]

Notes

The close comes from today's market data, while the implied volatility figure is the 30-day options-implied volatility reported by Fintel for NVDA. [investing +1]

Saved 25 Jun 2026 as docs/research/test-results/scoreboard-n3-2026-06-25/perplexity/q2-run2.md

GrGrok answered, correct25 Jun 2026
  • Run 1
  • private chat, memory off
  • The founding battery
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?

Grok answered, verbatim

NVDA closed at $195.74 on June 25, 2026 (down ~1.6% from the previous close of $199.00). [Yahoo Finance +1]

Its current 30-day implied volatility (IV) is approximately 35–38% (recent data points include ~37.0%, 35.64%, and around 37.38% as of late June 2026). [Marketchameleon +2]

This is a forward-looking measure derived from options prices (typically at-the-money options around 30 days out), reflecting the market's expected annualized volatility. It has been relatively subdued compared to historical levels for NVDA, with IV rank/percentile often in the 20–40% range recently. [Marketchameleon]

Note: Stock prices and IV are real-time/market-dependent and can fluctuate; these figures are based on the latest available data as of June 25, 2026. For the most precise/current values, check a reliable source like Yahoo Finance, Nasdaq, or an options platform.

Saved 25 Jun 2026 as docs/research/test-results/scoreboard-n3-2026-06-25/grok/q2-run1.md

ChChatGPT answered, partial25 Jun 2026
  • Run 3
  • temporary chat, memory off
  • The founding battery
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?

ChatGPT answered, verbatim

Here are the latest available figures I can verify:

📉 NVDA closing price

NVIDIA (NVDA) last official close was:

$200.04 on June 23, 2026 StockAnalysis

There was also a later session print showing:

$198.32 on June 24, 2026 (close) MarketBeat

So, depending on whether you're referencing the most recent full close or the prior fully settled session, NVDA is currently around:

~$198–$200 range (latest close: $198.32)

📊 30-day implied volatility (NVDA)

For NVDA, 30-day ATM implied volatility is not consistently published in simple equity summary feeds (it typically comes from options chains like CBOE, ORATS, or brokerage IV surfaces). However, recent market-derived estimates for NVDA around this period show:

~30-day IV: ~38%–45% range

Recent large options activity implied IV clustering around ~40–44% for near-the-money calls Reddit

🧠 Summary

NVDA close: ~$198.32 (most recent full close)

30D implied volatility: ~40% (rough mid-point of current options surface)

If you want, I can also break down:

NVDA skew (puts vs calls IV)

expected 1-month move from that IV

or how today's IV compares to its 1-year average (it's actually quite useful for NVDA right now)

Saved 25 Jun 2026 as docs/research/test-results/scoreboard-n3-2026-06-25/chatgpt/q2-run3.md

CoCopilot answered, correct18 Jul 2026
  • Run 1
  • fresh chat via "New chat" button, memory ON per run spec — recorded as-found, not toggled
  • Copilot joins the board
The prompt, as sent

What did NVDA close at today, and what's its current 30-day implied volatility?" (typographic apostrophe as in original)

Copilot answered, verbatim

Copilot said

NVDA closed at $202.81 today and its current 30‑day implied volatility is ~40%.

The closing price $202.81 comes from multiple market data sources for 17 July 2026. [citation: uk.finance.yahoo.com — "NIVIDA Corporation (NVDA) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance"] [citation: markets.ft.com — "NVIDIA Corp, NVDA:NSQ summary - FT.com"]

The most recent 30‑day IV readings cluster tightly around 39.5%–40%, depending on the data provider:

39.8% (projectoption, July 16) [citation: projectoption.com — "NVDA Implied Volatility | IV Rank & Percentile | projectoption"]

39.52% (OptionCharts, July 14) [citation: optioncharts.io — "NVDA: NVIDIA Corp Option Overview | OptionCharts"]

40.07% (Fintel, July 15) [citation: fintel.io — "NVDA / NVIDIA Corporation - Implied Volatility - Fintel Labs"]

Takeaway: NVDA's IV30 ≈ 40%, sitting in a mid‑range IV environment (IV rank ~33–36%).

📈 NVDA price snapshot 📊 NVDA implied volatility snapshot

Quick reference table

| Metric | Value | Source | |---|---|---| | NVDA closing price | $202.81 | Yahoo Finance / FT | | 30‑day implied volatility | ≈40% | ProjectOption / Fintel / OptionCharts | | IV Rank | ~33–36% | Same sources | | IV Percentile | ~50% | Same sources |

If you want, I can also pull NVDA's full options chain, IV term structure, or a volatility interpretation for trading strategy context.

[source chips: uk.finance.yahoo.com — NIVIDA Corporation (NVDA) stock price, news, quote and history - Yahoo Finance | markets.ft.com — NVIDIA Corp, NVDA:NSQ summary - FT.com | "Show all"]

Saved 18 Jul 2026 as docs/research/test-results/copilot-board-2026-07-18/copilot/q2-r1.md

// Cite this finding

Writing about this? Copy the verified result with attribution. The per-question grades are machine-readable as first-party JSON at /scoreboard/rdri.json (CC BY 4.0).

AI Reliability Scoreboard: Does the AI know today’s closing price, or yesterday’s high?
Asked (25 June 2026): "What did NVDA close at today, and what’s its current 30-day implied volatility?"
Correct answer: NVDA’s official close on its listing exchange (Nasdaq): $199.00 on 24 June and $195.74 on 25 June 2026. The $201.67 intraday high (24 June) is the wrong field, not the close.
Result across 6 AI assistants (N=3, memory off; Copilot, joined 18 Jul 2026, memory on as found, disclosed; graded vs the primary source): 1 of 6 answered confidently wrong; 3 got it right; 2 were partial or hedged.
Source: https://dixon.ai/scoreboard/q/nvda-close-and-implied-volatility/, DIXON.AI (CC BY 4.0)
// Confidently Wrong

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