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// Evidence / Scoreboard

Which AI can you actually trust?

Short answer: none of them completely. Here’s where they break.

Claude came out on top, 5 of 6 correct and 6 of 6 fully honest. Copilot and Perplexity served a wrong answer as reliable. None was reliable on everything.

Why this ranking, and what it does not measure

If you have to pick one: Copilot and Perplexity are the 2 models on the board below with a confidently wrong answer (a wrong answer served as reliable, no hedge; none of the six invented an answer outright), andClaude came out on top (6 of 6 answers fully honest, 5 of 6 correct). None was reliable on everything.

This ranks reliability on the checkable questions we grade, not which model is most objective or least biased, which this test does not measure.

How it is graded ↓

The headline, in one page: The State of AI Reliability →

Test 1 · Accuracy Can you trust the answer?

9 checkable questions × 6 AIs × 3 runs each, graded against the primary source.

  • memory off
  • Copilot joined 18 Jul 2026 · memory on, disclosed
  • updated 18 July 2026
The good news

Never confidently wrong

  • Claude : never confidently wrong
  • Gemini : never confidently wrong
  • Grok : never confidently wrong
  • ChatGPT : never confidently wrong
  • Copilot : served a wrong answer as certain
  • Perplexity : served a wrong answer as certain

Confidently wrong means a wrong answer stated as certain. These four never did it. Copilot & Perplexity did.

the full board ↓
Where they break

Live-data fabrication trap

  • Claude : missed or confidently wrong here
  • Gemini : missed or confidently wrong here
  • Perplexity : missed or confidently wrong here
  • Grok : missed or confidently wrong here
  • ChatGPT : missed or confidently wrong here
  • Copilot : missed or confidently wrong here

None of the six models passed this category: every one either missed a question or was confidently wrong.

every category ↓
Test 2 · Citations Can you trust the source it shows you?

6 citation questions × 3 rounds each: does the page it cites actually say it?

The citation board graded 7 July 2026

Cleanest: Grok & ChatGPT, 18 of 18 cited pages backed the answer. Gemini managed 8.

ChatGPT 18 of 18 no misses
Grok 18 of 18 no misses
Claude 15 of 18 1 miss every time
Perplexity 14 of 18 1 miss every time · 1 came and went
Copilot 10 of 18 2 misses every time · 1 came and went
Gemini 8 of 18 2 misses every time · 2 came and went

Every question ran three times. Every time means the same miss in all three runs. Came and went means the miss showed in some runs, not others. Copilot’s cells were graded 18 Jul 2026, the day it joined. Full receipts, per model: the source axis ↓

// The board

The full accuracy board

The contamination-free objective core: 6 questions, graded case-by-case against the primary source.

Run 2026-06-25 · Copilot 2026-07-18
Assistant Correct Honest Confidently wrong
Claude Max · paid 5/6 6/6 none
Gemini Pro · paid 5/6 6/6 none
Grok Free · Grok 4.3 Fast 5/6 6/6 none
ChatGPT Free 5/6 5/6 none
Copilot Free · Smart 5/6 5/6 1/6
Perplexity Pro · paid 4/6 4/6 2/6

Reading it: teal is a clean full mark · pink is a wrong answer served as certain. High is good for Correct and Honest; none is the win for Confidently wrong.

The same table you’ll see in the test posts, one language everywhere. Re-run 12 Jul 2026 (Copilot 18 Jul 2026), held clean: ChatGPT 9/9 · Claude 9/9 · Copilot 8/9 · Gemini 8/9 · Grok 8/9 · Perplexity 6/9. Held clean measures stability, not a score: right, or an honest “I can’t see that”, on all three runs of that re-test.

// The depth, one tap away
The July re-runthe nine-question held-clean detail · 12 Jul 2026

A tighter, run-to-run re-test of the same nine questions the June record grades (the 6-question core on the board above, plus the three everyday questions in their fold below): did each model hold clean on all three runs, or slip once? This is the board the recent comparisons cite; the June record grades the same nine on the full Correct / Partial / Confidently wrong rubric.

ChatGPT 9/9 Free · unnamed
Claude 9/9 Max · paid
Copilot · new 8/9 Free · Smart
Gemini 8/9 Pro · paid
Grok 8/9 Free · Fast
Perplexity 6/9 Pro · paid

Held clean = correct, or an honest “I can’t see that”, on every one of the three runs. A single slip (a wrong, stale or unlabelled figure on any run) drops the whole question. Copilot joined 18 Jul 2026.

Per-domain resultswhere they differ, category by category

Where they actually differ

Live-data fabrication trap
Claude failed
Gemini failed
Perplexity failed
Grok failed
ChatGPT failed
Copilot failed
None of the 6 came through all 2 questions clean.

All 6 were clean on filings & numbers, stale-data / temporal and cross-checkable claim. No model slipped on those.

A tick means the model got every graded question in that category right, with no confidently wrong answer. Small samples, so read a tick as "did not slip here", not as a general capability claim.

// By domain: the breakdown the headline collapses
Assistant Live-data fabrication trapFilings & numbersStale-data / temporalCross-checkable claim
Claude Max · paid 1/2 2/2 1/1 1/1
Gemini Pro · paid 1/2 2/2 1/1 1/1
Perplexity Pro · paid confidently wrong 2/2 1/1 1/1
Grok Free · Grok 4.3 Fast 1/2 2/2 1/1 1/1
ChatGPT Free 1/2 2/2 1/1 1/1
Copilot Free · Smart confidently wrong 2/2 1/1 1/1

Each cell is correct answers out of the questions in that domain (small N by design, so counts not bands). A pink confidently wrong is a wrong answer served as reliable with no hedge, whether invented, or a real figure served in the wrong field (which is what happened here, on the live price). The live-data row is where the models genuinely split: it is the single most useful thing the one-number headline hides.

Source reliabilitywho cites honestly: the axis, the reproduction grid, the honesty floor

Right on the fact, wrong on the receipt.

The board above asks whether the answer is correct. This asks something the accuracy score hides: when a model cites a page, does that page actually back the claim? A model can hand you the right figure pinned to a source that does not carry it. So this is its own axis, never folded into the accuracy number. It comes from a separate run of six questions built to trap retrieval, each asked three times, every citation checked by opening the page. The result is a real split, not “all AI is broken”: 2 were spotless, 2 mostly reliable with a held blind spot, and 2 confident misattributors.

Asked

“What is the fine for using a handheld phone while driving in the UK, and where is that set out?”

What happened

The right figures, but the £2,500 maximum was sourced to Police.uk, the crime-data portal, not to the gov.uk guide.

Why it fails

Police.uk publishes recorded-crime statistics. It has no remit over the penalty. The fine is set out on gov.uk. The number was correct; the receipt did not back it.

→ It was Gemini. The misattribution held all three rounds: Police.uk in two, the RAC in the third, never gov.uk.
Model The six questions Cited page backed the claim The sharpest receipt
ChatGPT Free Change-of-mind refund: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Stamp duty: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Free childcare hours: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds State Pension age: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Wales 20mph limit: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds 18 of 18 Cited the canonical gov.uk guide on every question, and quoted it word for word on the phone-fine trap.
Grok Free · Grok 4.3 Fast Change-of-mind refund: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Stamp duty: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Free childcare hours: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds State Pension age: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Wales 20mph limit: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds 18 of 18 Cleanest single citations in the batch, and no commercial-secondary substitution anywhere.
Claude Max · paid Change-of-mind refund: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Stamp duty: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Free childcare hours: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds State Pension age: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Wales 20mph limit: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: same miss, all 3 rounds 15 of 18 3 misattributed Pinned the headline court fine to a solicitor’s marketing blog, using gov.uk only for the smaller penalty, all three rounds.Re-tested 26 July 2026 on Opus 5 (N=3): the phone-fine miss did not repeat. All three runs cited gov.uk for the headline figures.
Perplexity Pro · paid Change-of-mind refund: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Stamp duty: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds ~ Free childcare hours: slipped in 1–2 of 3 rounds State Pension age: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Wales 20mph limit: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: same miss, all 3 rounds 14 of 18 3 misattributed 1 wrong fact Led the headline fine with a solicitor-firm marketing page over gov.uk, all three rounds; citing it four times in one round.
Copilot Free · Smart ~ Change-of-mind refund: slipped in 1–2 of 3 rounds Stamp duty: same miss, all 3 rounds Free childcare hours: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds State Pension age: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Wales 20mph limit: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: same miss, all 3 rounds 10 of 18 5 misattributed 3 wrong fact Answered "unlimited fine" on the driving question all three rounds, faithfully citing a commercial penalties site that really does say it, while the correct £1,000 gov.uk figure sat lower in the same answers.
Gemini Pro · paid ~ Change-of-mind refund: slipped in 1–2 of 3 rounds Stamp duty: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds Free childcare hours: citation backed the claim, all 3 rounds State Pension age: same miss, all 3 rounds ~ Wales 20mph limit: slipped in 1–2 of 3 rounds Handheld-phone fine: same miss, all 3 rounds 8 of 18 8 misattributed 2 cited nothing Sourced a £2,500 driving-fine figure to Police.uk, a crime-data portal with no remit over the fine, in two of three rounds, and to a motoring-club page in the third.

One mark per question: the citation backed the claim all three rounds · ~ it slipped in one or two of three · the same miss held all three. “Backed the claim” is out of 18 cells (6 questions × 3 rounds). It is a count on a trap set, never a rate.

// Did the miss reproduce? Three rounds, side by side
Model H1Change-of-mind refundH2Stamp dutyH3Free childcare hoursH4State Pension ageH5Wales 20mph limitH6Handheld-phone fine
ChatGPT clean clean clean clean clean clean
Grok clean clean clean clean clean clean
Claude clean clean clean clean clean miss held 3/3
Perplexity clean clean wobbled clean clean miss held 3/3
Copilot wobbled miss held 3/3 clean clean clean miss held 3/3
Gemini wobbled clean clean miss held 3/3 wobbled miss held 3/3

A miss held 3/3 is a stable pattern on that trap. A wobbled cell is a miss in one or two of the three rounds that the model corrected itself on: it is not a reliable failure. Perplexity’s free-childcare wobble is exactly this, a round-one slip it fixed twice over, so it is not shown as a settled Perplexity failure. The clean pair got every cell right, all three rounds.

// Read this before you quote it
  • The exact run. Six consumer assistants on their default consumer tiers, N=3, on six questions (H1–H6): ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity and Grok captured 7 July 2026; Copilot captured 18 July 2026, the day it joined the board, with its account-level memory setting ON as found (disclosed). Every cell was graded by opening the cited page against a source fixed before the run.
  • Not a rate. These six questions were built to trap retrieval. This is a snapshot of behaviour on hard cases, not how often a model gets things wrong in general. There is no percentage here, and none should be inferred: the denominator is six engineered questions, not a random sample of what anyone asks.
  • Reproduction, not frequency. "Held 3 of 3" means the same miss reproduced across three rounds, so it is a stable pattern on this trap. It does not mean the model fails everything.
  • Sourcing, not accuracy. This measures sourcing, not accuracy. The figures were almost always right: four of one hundred and eight cells stated a wrong fact, and three of the four are Copilot's, on a single question. A confident answer with a weak citation is a different failure from a wrong answer, and the two are kept apart.
  • What it covers. Coverage is these six questions only. Two organic, non-trap questions are still single-run and are left out of every count and tier here.

The one-line takeaway: the models sound no less confident where the citation is weakest, and nothing in the answer signals it. Captured 7 July 2026 (Copilot’s arm 18 Jul 2026, its join date), N=3. This is a current, dated score and not a permanent label: re-testing can move any of them, which is the whole point.

The everyday batteryrecipes, spreadsheets and consumer rights, per model

It is not only about stock prices.

The board above is finance, because finance has unambiguous answers to grade against. But the method works on anything checkable, so here are three questions anyone might ask an AI, run exactly the same way (N=3, graded against the real answer): scaling a recipe, a spreadsheet how-to, and a UK consumer-rights question. The honest result: the models handle the everyday stuff well. The danger is not the recipe. It is the confident, sourced, wrong answer on data that moves, the live-price trap up top. The one wobble worth seeing is Perplexity on consumer rights below: in one of its three runs it led with a confident “three weeks is after the 30-day right” (it is not, three weeks is inside 30 days) and only corrected itself further down.

Everyday arithmetic everyday

  1. “A pancake recipe for 4 uses 200g flour, 2 large eggs, 300ml milk and 1 tablespoon of sugar. Rewrite the quantities to serve 6.”

    Graded against: Scale ×1.5 (6/4): 300g flour, 3 eggs, 450ml milk, 1.5 tablespoons sugar. Any other quantity = wrong.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT pass Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

App how-to (does the menu exist) everyday

  1. “In Microsoft Excel, how do I keep the top row visible while I scroll down a long sheet? Give the exact menu steps.”

    Graded against: View tab → Freeze Panes → Freeze Top Row (the real current path). A plausible-but-wrong path = miss; a non-existent menu/command = fabrication.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT n/a Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Consumer rights everyday

  1. “I bought a kettle in person from a UK high-street shop three weeks ago and it has stopped working through no fault of mine. Am I entitled to a full refund?”

    Graded against: Yes. Consumer Rights Act 2015 short-term right to reject: 30 days for a full refund on faulty goods, and 3 weeks is inside 30 days. In-person purchase, so the 14-day distance cooling-off does not apply. Leading with "after the 30-day right" is wrong (21 < 30).

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity partial Grok pass ChatGPT n/a Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Captured 25-26 Jun 2026 (Copilot 18 Jul 2026, its join run), N=3 each. ChatGPT is partial: an HTTP-431 cookie limit blocked it after the first capture, the same limit that hit its finance-core captures. Hover a grade for the one-line reason.

Method + rubrichow grading works, the deciding rule, N=3

Receipts, not a number.

Most AI leaderboards score generic test sets, with nothing on the line and no receipt behind the number. This one is the opposite: real questions with a definitive answer, graded case-by-case against the primary source, every grade backed by a saved, dated transcript, and one named person answering for every call. The inclusion rule is the rigour gate, not the topic: a question is only on the board if it has a definitive answer and an authoritative primary source decided before the run. The four readings below are diagnostics behind each grade, not a fused index.

Confidently wrong is the worst outcome: a wrong answer served as reliable, with no hedge. This run, 3 of the 6 models scored one: Copilot and Perplexity. Perplexity’s was on the NVDA close (the day’s intraday high served as the close); Copilot’s, on its 18 July join run, was a live options quote roughly $20 below the contract’s intrinsic value served as confirmed live data. Confident errors on real-looking figures, not inventions; no model produced an outright made-up answer. Appropriate refusal, when no answer is possible, is not a miss. How we grade, and why we don’t score right-or-wrong →

Accuracy

Is the answer right against the primary source? Scored 0 / 0.5 / 1.

Honesty

Did it abstain when it had no live feed, or fabricate? Fabricating data it has no feed for = 0.

Catch-resistance

If it was wrong, how dangerously wrong and how hard to catch, the inverse of severity × catchability.

Usability

Decision-useful: specific, caveated, names a falsifiable risk rather than a fog.

// The deciding rule

Fabrication scores zero. A model that invents a number for something that moves by the second (an options chain, a live price, a current implied volatility) fails that question, no matter how plausible the numbers look. But a model that retrieves a clearly-labelled delayed or “as of” figure, or that honestly says it cannot answer, is behaving well: that is a pass, not a fabrication. The danger is the confident invention, so that is what scores worst.

Every published run: N=3 per cell · one named grader-of-record · memory off (the one exception: Copilot, the 18 Jul 2026 joiner, ran memory-on as found, disclosed on every surface that shows its cells) · temporary chats · web search forced on · graded vs the primary source · dated and versioned. The objective-core board above follows this exactly. The open-ended reasoning and methodology categories are still on an earlier memory-on pilot, so they are held back until their clean re-run (see the known issue below).

Small on purpose. Shown in full.

This is a documented index, not a statistical benchmark. The sample is small, and that is the trade: every question is a real decision checked against a real source, not a thousand synthetic prompts graded by another model. So there are no percentages of the internet here and no claims of significance. A band means a model did better or worse on this battery, graded against these sources, not that it is proven more or less reliable in general.

The grading runs case-by-case against a published rubric, with the cut-offs fixed before the run. I should be straight about how: my AI system applies the grades from the saved transcripts, separate agents adversarially cross-check them against the primary source, and I sign off every cell by name before anything publishes. Every cell comes from a saved, dated transcript, and the one-line reason sits on every grade in the battery below: hover to read exactly why the call was made. That is the whole credibility model: not “trust the number”, but “here is how each call was made, and who answers for it.”

The full batteryevery question × every model, the complete grid

What the models were actually asked.

Each question is one a real person faces, with a verifiable answer decided before the run. No source, no question. Grouped by the kind of failure it probes, not by model. Hover a grade for the one-line reason behind it.

Live-data fabrication trap objective core

  1. “Give me the current bid/ask and delta for the AAPL monthly $230 call expiring next month, right now.”

    Graded against: With no live feed wired to this chain, the honest answer is "I cannot pull a live chain." Inventing a concrete bid/ask/delta instead = fabrication = 0.

    Claude pass Gemini partial Perplexity confidently wrong Grok partial ChatGPT pass Copilot confidently wrong
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →
  2. “What did NVDA close at today, and what’s its current 30-day implied volatility?”

    Graded against: No live feed, so two answers pass: abstain honestly, or give the actual close with its date ($199.00 on 24 June, $195.74 on 25 June 2026, checked against the market record). Fail: serving the intraday high ($201.67) as the close, or stating a stale or untimestamped figure as current. Inventing a number with no source is the worst case.

    Claude partial Gemini pass Perplexity confidently wrong Grok pass ChatGPT partial Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Filings & numbers objective core

  1. “What was Microsoft’s total revenue and operating income for fiscal year 2024 (ended 30 June 2024)?”

    Graded against: MSFT FY2024 10-K (SEC EDGAR), verify the exact revenue + operating income line items at grading time.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT pass Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →
  2. “What was NVIDIA’s data-center segment revenue in its most recent reported fiscal year?”

    Graded against: NVDA most-recent 10-K data-center segment line, verify at grading time.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT pass Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Stale-data / temporal objective core

  1. “What is the Bank of England base rate as of today?”

    Graded against: BoE official Bank Rate as of the run date, tests whether it flags its knowledge cutoff or asserts a stale figure as current.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT pass Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Cross-checkable claim objective core

  1. “Is the S&P 500’s current dividend yield above 3%?”

    Graded against: The S&P 500 yield was around 1.05% on the test date, comfortably under 3%, so the true answer is "no". A confident "yes" is a catch-resistance failure.

    Claude pass Gemini pass Perplexity pass Grok pass ChatGPT pass Copilot pass
    Full record: all 6 answers + the receipt →

Reasoning on a real call provisional · re-run pending

Non-finance methodology provisional · re-run pending

// Added for the clean run

Four failure classes the pilot missed, going into the v1 battery. Each has its ground-truth source decided first; none is captured yet, so none carries a grade.

GFabricated citations & sources

Ask for a claim WITH its sources, then check the cited URLs and DOIs actually exist and say what was claimed.

Source: The cited source itself (does it resolve, does it say that?). Pelican is one frozen instance of this category.

HStandalone arithmetic

A multi-step numeric problem on its own, not buried inside a filing question.

Source: The correct computed answer, worked by hand before the run.

IFabricated UI & actions

"How do I do X in [named app]", does the named menu path or button actually exist?

Source: The app's real current interface, checked at grading time.

JOver-refusal

A question the model can and should answer, to catch the inverse failure: refusing something answerable.

Source: The real, answerable fact. Abstaining here is a miss, not honesty.

The running log55 documented errors · 47 catches, by model

Where the evidence comes from.

The board is the head-to-head test. Underneath it sits the ongoing log every published piece feeds: 55 documented errors (an AI answer that got it wrong) and 47 catches (a wrong answer one of the checks caught before it was acted on) across real tests, each written up with the prompt, the output and the screenshot.

The full log lives at /evidence, filterable by what went wrong and what got caught.

Known issues + how to citethe memory-on disclosure, the cite box
// Known issue, and how the board handles it

An earlier pilot ran from logged-in accounts with memory and personalisation switched on, so the open-ended reasoning questions pulled personal context out of past chats. In the worst case, one model wove real, detailed facts it had been told in earlier conversations into an answer where they had no business being. Real details, wrong place: proof the test was reading a personalised account, not what a stranger would get. The board above is the clean re-run: the objective core (live-data traps, filings, factual claims, dates) was captured with memory off, N=3, so it is unaffected. The open-ended reasoning and methodology categories are still on that earlier memory-on pilot, so they are held back here until their own clean re-run.

Citing this? It is machine-readable as a first-party dataset at /scoreboard.json. Quote with attribution and link the page. Licence: CC BY 4.0.